For information
On the question “Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in October 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 36%, settling by 20 Dec 2027.
Settled by: German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis)
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Germany September industrial orders +4.4% vs +4.8% m/m expected
investinglive.com · 5 Nov 2026 · claim C5
Destatis attributed much of the September increase to a marked rise in the automotive industry, where orders were up 10.5 percent month over month on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis.
www.indexbox.io · 5 Nov 2026 · claim C3
For August 2026, Destatis revised its preliminary figures and reported a month-over-month decline of 10.1 percent, compared with a preliminary reading of a 10.6 percent drop.
www.indexbox.io · 5 Nov 2026 · claim C2
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- A later release breaks it if the monthly rise fades and the less volatile comparison stays near flat or turns lower.
- The call resolves NO if it reports a smaller increase, no increase, or no October figure on the page by the resolve date.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans