Forecast ledger
Track record
Every ARCANE article carries 1 to 3 scored, publicly resolvable Calls — a probability, a resolve-by date and the exact rule that decides them. This page lists every one, open and resolved, so the desk's calibration is checkable rather than claimed.
Scoring
Scoring begins when the first calls resolve.
Open (2)
Will Sea-Intelligence report global container schedule reliability below 60% for August 2026?
62% · resolves by 2026-10-15