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Forecast ledger

Track record

When an ARCANE article makes a Call, it states a probability, a resolve-by date and the exact rule that decides it. The scores cover the full ledger, including calls no longer in the recent lists below. Annulled calls remain counted but are not scored. A dated hypothesis is not demonstrated forecasting skill or a trading edge.

Scoring

Scored
8
Brier score
0.240
Log score
0.666

Early: fewer than 10 Calls have been scored, so these scores can move a lot with each new one.

78 open · 8 resolved · 0 annulled. Scores use the last forecast recorded before resolution, not a later update.

We count 6 of the 8 scored Calls as largely settled or near-certain when sealed. They are scored as sealed above, earn no skill credit, and are left out of the forecast scoreboard.

Editor’s note, 19 Oct 2026

The September urea Call and the four Calls on whether the World Bank’s urea price falls below $600 a tonne in any month from September 2026 were all decided by the September print ($407.50, the 2 Oct edition). When we sealed them on 1 Oct the latest published price was already $390 (August). We gave YES 62%, 22%, 33%, 47% and 66%, so three of them leaned the wrong way. They were not withdrawn or re-dated: each is scored as sealed and earns no skill credit, and the four with later resolve-by dates were settled early, once the print had decided them. That is five scores but one observation: the September print decided all five, so the average counts one fact five times.

Resolved

  1. 58%

    Called

    Will Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) report China's rare earth permanent magnet exports for September 2026 at 4,700 metric tons or more?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.176 · Evidence · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if SMM's report on China's September 2026 rare earth permanent magnet exports, published on its news site by 2026-10-31, gives a monthly total of 4,700 metric tons or more. NO if the figure is below 4,700 metric tons or if SMM has published no September figure by that date.
    Source
    Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) monthly magnet export report, https://news.metal.com/

  2. 3%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL publish its third-quarter 2026 financial results on or before 12 October 2026?

    Resolved NO · Brier 0.001 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as near-certain when sealed (3%): the company reports 30 to 43 days after a quarter ends, and the Call’s own basis names no consensus figure to differ from. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's investor relations page shows a results press release or financial statements for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 dated on or before 12 October 2026. NO if no such release appears with a date on or before 12 October 2026.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  3. 66%

    Called

    Will the World Bank report a monthly average urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 onward, in data published by 10 October 2027?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.116 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as largely settled when sealed: the latest published price was already $390 (August), and the September print ($407.50) decided it. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's monthly commodity price data on this page, as published by 10 October 2027, shows a urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 through September 2027. NO if every such month is at or above $600.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

  4. 47%

    Called

    Will the World Bank report a monthly average urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 onward, in data published by 10 April 2027?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.281 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as largely settled when sealed: the latest published price was already $390 (August), and the September print ($407.50) decided it. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's monthly commodity price data on this page, as published by 10 April 2027, shows a urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 through March 2027. NO if every such month is at or above $600 or is not published by that date.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

  5. 33%

    Called

    Will the World Bank report a monthly average urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 onward, in data published by 15 January 2027?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.449 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as largely settled when sealed: the latest published price was already $390 (August), and the September print ($407.50) decided it. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's monthly commodity price data on this page, as published by 15 January 2027, shows a urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 through December 2026. NO if every such month is at or above $600 or is not published by that date.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

  6. 22%

    Called

    Will the World Bank report a monthly average urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 onward, in data published by 10 November 2026?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.608 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as largely settled when sealed: the latest published price was already $390 (August), and the September print ($407.50) decided it. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's monthly commodity price data on this page, as published by 10 November 2026, shows a urea price below $600 per metric ton for September 2026 or October 2026. NO if both months are at or above $600 or are not published by that date.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

  7. 62%

    Called

    Will Sea-Intelligence report global container schedule reliability below 60% for August 2026?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.144 · Machine-reviewed · Evidence

    Decided by
    Resolves YES only if a Sea-Intelligence Global Liner Performance press release published by the resolve date reports August 2026 global schedule reliability below 60%; NO otherwise.
    Source
    Sea-Intelligence Press Room — https://www.sea-intelligence.com/press-room

  8. 62%

    Called

    Will the World Bank's monthly average urea price for September 2026 be at most $750 per metric ton?

    Resolved YES · Brier 0.144 · Evidence · Call Card

    We count this as largely settled when sealed: July ($400) and August ($390) were already published under the $750 line. No skill credit.

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's monthly commodity price data published on this page by 9 October 2026 shows a urea price for September 2026 of $750 per metric ton or less. NO if the figure is above $750, or if no September 2026 urea figure is published there by that date.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets

Open

  1. 72%

    Called

    Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 6 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows the deposit facility rate at or below 2.5% on 6 November 2026; NO if it shows a higher rate.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

  2. 62%

    Called

    Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on November 8, 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Treasury daily yield curve page, use the 10-year value for November 8, 2026, if published by the resolve date. YES if it is at least 4.990%; NO if it is below 4.990%.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  3. 30%

    Called

    Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2026-11-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset government record shows a newly sworn-in government with at least 61 supporting seats by the resolve date; NO if it does not.
    Source
    The Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/mk/government/Pages/Governments.aspx

  4. 62%

    Called

    Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-11-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Treasury's daily par yield curve data show the 10-year yield at least 3 bp above its prior business day's value on any business day through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  5. 62%

    Called

    Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-11-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the team's public member list on this page names at least 11 countries by the resolve date; NO if it names fewer than 11 or no member list is published there.
    Source
    Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, https://www.msmts.org/

  6. 20%

    Called

    Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2026-11-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq historical data show a session by the resolve date when ServiceNow's closing price is at least 27% below the previous trading day's close; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/now/historical

  7. 62%

    Called

    Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 11 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's published front-month WTI settlement for 11 November 2026 is at least $96.50 per barrel; NO if it is below $96.50 or no settlement is published for that date.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

  8. 62%

    Called

    Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2026-11-11?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the page reports Meta's final euro bond spread as at least 0.9 point wider than the comparable April note by the resolve date. NO if it reports a narrower difference or no such pricing by then.
    Source
    Ad Hoc News, https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/

  9. 32%

    Called

    Will the Nasdaq Composite record a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through 2026-11-12?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq's historical data show a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/indexes/comp/historical

  10. 65%

    Called

    Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on November 12, 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's page shows the December 2026 gold futures settlement at or above $4,016 per troy ounce for November 12, 2026; NO if it shows a lower settlement. If no settlement is shown for that date, resolve NO.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.quotes.html

  11. 62%

    Called

    Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2026-11-12?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows a euro reference rate of at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any date up to and including 12 Nov 2026. NO if it shows no such rate by then.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html

  12. 18%

    Called

    Will the Knesset’s official record show Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote by 2026-11-13?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset record published by this date shows Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote. NO if it shows fewer votes, or no such vote has occurred by this date.
    Source
    Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/

  13. 25%

    Called

    Will the S&P 500 fall at least 4.4% in a single trading session by 13 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the historical daily data shows a close-to-close decline of at least 4.4% on any trading day through 13 November 2026; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

  14. 93%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL publish its third-quarter 2026 financial results on or before 14 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's investor relations page shows a results press release or financial statements for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 dated on or before 14 November 2026. NO if no such release appears with a date on or before 14 November 2026.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  15. 68%

    Called

    Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 28 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows the deposit facility rate at or below 2.5% on 28 November 2026; NO if it shows a higher rate.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

  16. 15%

    Called

    Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 28 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if an ECB monetary policy decision published by this date says the Governing Council raised a key interest rate by 25 bp before 28 November 2026; otherwise NO.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html

  17. 60%

    Called

    Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 29 November 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if MarketWatch's historical data page shows a closing value at or below the threshold for 29 November 2026; NO if it shows a higher value.
    Source
    MarketWatch, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical

  18. 64%

    Called

    Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for November 2026 be at least 49.3 PMI points?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the NBS page reports November 2026’s official manufacturing PMI as at least 49.3. NO if it reports a lower figure or does not publish the figure by the resolve date.
    Source
    China National Bureau of Statistics, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

  19. 34%

    Called

    Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2026-11-30?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset government record shows a newly sworn-in government with at least 61 supporting seats by the resolve date; NO if it does not.
    Source
    The Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/mk/government/Pages/Governments.aspx

  20. 67%

    Called

    Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 4 December 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's published front-month WTI settlement for 4 December 2026 is at least $96.50 per barrel; NO if it is below $96.50 or no settlement is published for that date.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

  21. 70%

    Called

    Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2026-12-04?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the page reports Meta's final euro bond spread as at least 0.9 point wider than the comparable April note by the resolve date. NO if it reports a narrower difference or no such pricing by then.
    Source
    Ad Hoc News, https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/

  22. 70%

    Called

    Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on December 5, 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's page shows the December 2026 gold futures settlement at or above $4,016 per troy ounce for December 4, 2026, the last trading day before the deadline; NO if it shows a lower settlement. If no settlement is shown, resolve NO.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.quotes.html

  23. 18%

    Called

    Will the Nasdaq 100 fall at least 6.36% in a single trading session by 6 December 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq historical data shows a close-to-close decline of at least 6.36% on any trading day through 6 December 2026; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/indexes/ndx/historical

  24. 30%

    Called

    Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2026-12-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq historical data show a session by the resolve date when ServiceNow's closing price is at least 27% below the previous trading day's close; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/now/historical

  25. 67%

    Called

    Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2026-12-10?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows a euro reference rate of at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any date up to and including 10 Dec 2026. NO if it shows no such rate by then.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html

  26. 65%

    Called

    Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on December 10, 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Treasury daily yield curve page, use the 10-year value for December 10, 2026, if published by the resolve date. YES if it is at least 4.990%; NO if it is below 4.990%.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  27. 30%

    Called

    Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in October 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Destatis reports that real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month for October 2026. NO if it reports a smaller increase, no increase, or no October figure on the page by the resolve date.
    Source
    German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2026/12/

  28. 80%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 22.8 per cent for the third quarter of 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's third-quarter 2026 results release shows a cement division EBITDA margin of 22.8 per cent or more, either as stated or as division EBITDA divided by division revenue for the quarter. NO if the figure is below 22.8 per cent, or if no third-quarter cement division figures are published by 15 December 2026.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  29. 65%

    Called

    Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-12-15?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the team's public member list on this page names at least 11 countries by the resolve date; NO if it names fewer than 11 or no member list is published there.
    Source
    Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, https://www.msmts.org/

  30. 68%

    Called

    Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-12-15?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Treasury's daily par yield curve data show the 10-year yield at least 3 bp above its prior business day's value on any business day through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  31. 45%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 26.1 per cent for the third quarter of 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's third-quarter 2026 results release shows a cement division EBITDA margin of 26.1 per cent or more, either as stated or as division EBITDA divided by division revenue for the quarter. NO if the figure is below 26.1 per cent, or if no third-quarter cement division figures are published by 15 December 2026.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  32. 62%

    Called

    Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 20 December 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendars and meeting materials page, YES if the December 2026 meeting statement raises the federal funds target range; NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
    Source
    Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

  33. 34%

    Called

    Will the Knesset’s official record show Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote by 2026-12-21?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset record published by this date shows Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote. NO if it shows fewer votes, or no such vote has occurred by this date.
    Source
    Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/

  34. 58%

    Called

    Will Kenya’s Court of Appeal grant a stay of the High Court order restoring the transferred Safaricom PLC stake to the Government of Kenya by 2026-12-31?

    Resolves by

    Decided by
    Resolves YES only if a Court of Appeal judgment or ruling published by Kenya Law by the date above stays the High Court’s September 15 Safaricom PLC share-restoration order; NO otherwise.
    Source
    Kenya Law judgments — https://new.kenyalaw.org/judgments/

  35. 68%

    Called

    Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for December 2026 be at least 49.3 PMI points?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the NBS page reports December 2026’s official manufacturing PMI as at least 49.3. NO if it reports a lower figure or does not publish the figure by the resolve date.
    Source
    China National Bureau of Statistics, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

  36. 62%

    Called

    Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 28 January 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows the deposit facility rate at or below 2.5% on 28 January 2027; NO if it shows a higher rate.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

  37. 55%

    Called

    Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 28 January 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if an ECB monetary policy decision published by this date says the Governing Council raised a key interest rate by 25 bp before 28 January 2027; otherwise NO.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html

  38. 66%

    Called

    Will Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) report China's full-year 2026 rare earth permanent magnet exports at 60,000 metric tons or more?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if SMM's report covering December 2026 magnet exports, published by 2027-01-29, gives a cumulative January-December 2026 total of 60,000 metric tons or more (or monthly SMM figures for 2026 sum to that). NO if the total is below 60,000 metric tons or no full-year figure is published by that date.
    Source
    Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) monthly magnet export report, https://news.metal.com/

  39. 68%

    Called

    Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on January 29, 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Treasury daily yield curve page, use the 10-year value for January 29, 2027, if published by the resolve date. YES if it is at least 4.990%; NO if it is below 4.990%.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  40. 65%

    Called

    Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 29 January 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if MarketWatch's historical data page shows a closing value at or below the threshold for 29 January 2027; NO if it shows a higher value.
    Source
    MarketWatch, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical

  41. 36%

    Called

    Will Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) report China's full-year 2026 rare earth permanent magnet exports at 61,600 metric tons or more, matching its own forecast?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if SMM's report covering December 2026 magnet exports, published by 2027-01-29, gives a cumulative January-December 2026 total of 61,600 metric tons or more (or monthly SMM figures for 2026 sum to that). NO if the total is lower or no full-year figure is published by that date.
    Source
    Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) monthly magnet export report, https://news.metal.com/

  42. 37%

    Called

    Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2027-01-30?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset government record shows a newly sworn-in government with at least 61 supporting seats by the resolve date; NO if it does not.
    Source
    The Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/mk/government/Pages/Governments.aspx

  43. 40%

    Called

    Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2027-02-01?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq historical data show a session by the resolve date when ServiceNow's closing price is at least 27% below the previous trading day's close; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/now/historical

  44. 74%

    Called

    Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2027-02-03?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the page reports Meta's final euro bond spread as at least 0.9 point wider than the comparable April note by the resolve date. NO if it reports a narrower difference or no such pricing by then.
    Source
    Ad Hoc News, https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/

  45. 72%

    Called

    Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 3 February 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's published front-month WTI settlement for 3 February 2027 is at least $96.50 per barrel; NO if it is below $96.50 or no settlement is published for that date.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

  46. 72%

    Called

    Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2027-02-04?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows a euro reference rate of at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any date up to and including 4 Feb 2027. NO if it shows no such rate by then.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html

  47. 65%

    Called

    Will the Nasdaq Composite record a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through 2027-02-04?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq's historical data show a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/indexes/comp/historical

  48. 75%

    Called

    Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on February 4, 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's page shows the April 2027 gold futures settlement at or above $4,016 per troy ounce for February 4, 2027; NO if it shows a lower settlement. If no settlement is shown, resolve NO.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.quotes.html

  49. 20%

    Called

    Will the VIX surge at least 70% in a single trading session by 5 February 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Cboe's daily VIX data shows a close-to-close increase of at least 70% on any trading day through 5 February 2027; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Cboe Global Markets, https://www.cboe.com/tradable_products/vix/vix_historical_data/

  50. 62%

    Called

    Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 6 February 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendars and meeting materials page, YES if the December 2026 meeting statement raises the federal funds target range; NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
    Source
    Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

  51. 74%

    Called

    Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2027-02-15?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Treasury's daily par yield curve data show the 10-year yield at least 3 bp above its prior business day's value on any business day through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  52. 62%

    Called

    Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for January 2027 be at least 49.3 PMI points?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the NBS page reports January 2027’s official manufacturing PMI as at least 49.3. NO if it reports a lower figure or does not publish the figure by the resolve date.
    Source
    China National Bureau of Statistics, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

  53. 32%

    Called

    Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in December 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Destatis reports that real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month for December 2026. NO if it reports a smaller increase, no increase, or no December figure on the page by the resolve date.
    Source
    German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2027/02/

  54. 68%

    Called

    Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2027-02-28?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the team's public member list on this page names at least 11 countries by the resolve date; NO if it names fewer than 11 or no member list is published there.
    Source
    Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, https://www.msmts.org/

  55. 68%

    Called

    Will the US Department of Agriculture's first farm income forecast for 2027 show fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses lower in 2027 than in 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Farm Sector Income Forecast on this page, as published by 15 March 2027, forecasts 2027 fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses below its 2026 figure. NO if the 2027 figure is equal or higher, or if no 2027 forecast is published there by that date.
    Source
    USDA Economic Research Service, Farm Sector Income Forecast, https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/farm-sector-income-forecast

  56. 53%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 26.1 per cent for the full year 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's full-year 2026 results release shows a cement division EBITDA margin of 26.1 per cent or more for the twelve months to 31 December 2026, either as stated or as division EBITDA divided by division revenue. NO if the figure is below 26.1 per cent, or if no full-year cement division figures are published by 31 March 2027.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  57. 6%

    Called

    Will China's Ministry of Commerce publish an announcement lifting or suspending its January 2026 ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan by 1 April 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if, by 2027-04-01, the Ministry of Commerce website carries an official announcement that revokes, suspends or ends the export restrictions on dual-use items to Japan that it announced in January 2026. NO if no such announcement appears on the site by that date.
    Source
    China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) official announcements, https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/

  58. 65%

    Called

    Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 29 April 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if an ECB monetary policy decision published by this date says the Governing Council raised a key interest rate by 25 bp before 29 April 2027; otherwise NO.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html

  59. 70%

    Called

    Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 30 April 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if MarketWatch's historical data page shows a closing value at or below the threshold for 30 April 2027; NO if it shows a higher value.
    Source
    MarketWatch, https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy/historical

  60. 70%

    Called

    Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on April 30, 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Treasury daily yield curve page, use the 10-year value for April 30, 2027, if published by the resolve date. YES if it is at least 4.990%; NO if it is below 4.990%.
    Source
    U.S. Department of the Treasury, https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve

  61. 70%

    Called

    Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2027-05-01?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the team's public member list on this page names at least 11 countries by the resolve date; NO if it names fewer than 11 or no member list is published there.
    Source
    Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team, https://www.msmts.org/

  62. 39%

    Called

    Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2027-05-01?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset government record shows a newly sworn-in government with at least 61 supporting seats by the resolve date; NO if it does not.
    Source
    The Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/mk/government/Pages/Governments.aspx

  63. 66%

    Called

    Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for April 2027 be at least 49.3 PMI points?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the NBS page reports April 2027’s official manufacturing PMI as at least 49.3. NO if it reports a lower figure or does not publish the figure by the resolve date.
    Source
    China National Bureau of Statistics, https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/

  64. 76%

    Called

    Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 5 May 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's published front-month WTI settlement for 5 May 2027 is at least $96.50 per barrel; NO if it is below $96.50 or no settlement is published for that date.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

  65. 77%

    Called

    Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2027-05-06?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the ECB page shows a euro reference rate of at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any date up to and including 6 May 2027. NO if it shows no such rate by then.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html

  66. 80%

    Called

    Will the COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on May 6, 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if CME Group's page shows the June 2027 gold futures settlement at or above $4,016 per troy ounce for May 6, 2027; NO if it shows a lower settlement. If no settlement is shown, resolve NO.
    Source
    CME Group, https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/gold.quotes.html

  67. 78%

    Called

    Will the Nasdaq Composite record a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through 2027-05-06?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Nasdaq's historical data show a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through the resolve date; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Nasdaq, https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/indexes/comp/historical

  68. 40%

    Called

    Will Lynas Rare Earths' quarterly report for the three months to 31 March 2027 show combined dysprosium and terbium production of 10 metric tons or more?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Lynas's quarterly activities report for the quarter ended 31 March 2027, lodged with the exchange by 2027-05-07, states combined dysprosium and terbium (or heavy rare earth oxide) production of 10 metric tons or more. NO if the stated figure is below 10 tons, or if the report gives no such figure by that date.
    Source
    Lynas Rare Earths announcements on the Australian Securities Exchange, https://www.asx.com.au/markets/company/LYC

  69. 35%

    Called

    Will the S&P 500 fall at least 4.4% in a single trading session by 7 May 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the historical daily data shows a close-to-close decline of at least 4.4% on any trading day through 7 May 2027; otherwise NO.
    Source
    Yahoo Finance, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

  70. 62%

    Called

    Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 8 May 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendars and meeting materials page, YES if the December 2026 meeting statement raises the federal funds target range; NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
    Source
    Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

  71. 34%

    Called

    Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in March 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Destatis reports that real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month for March 2027. NO if it reports a smaller increase, no increase, or no March figure on the page by the resolve date.
    Source
    German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2027/05/

  72. 62%

    Called

    Will the Knesset’s official record show Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote by 2027-06-14?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the Knesset record published by this date shows Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote. NO if it shows fewer votes, or no such vote has occurred by this date.
    Source
    Knesset, https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/

  73. 55%

    Called

    Will EMSTEEL's cement division report revenue of at least AED 287 million for the second quarter of 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if EMSTEEL's second-quarter 2027 results release shows cement division revenue of AED 287 million or more for the quarter ended 30 June 2027. NO if the figure is below AED 287 million, or if no second-quarter 2027 cement division revenue is published by 15 September 2027.
    Source
    EMSTEEL investor relations, https://www.emsteel.com/investor-relations/

  74. 72%

    Called

    Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 29 October 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if an ECB monetary policy decision published by this date says the Governing Council raised a key interest rate by 25 bp before 29 October 2027; otherwise NO.
    Source
    European Central Bank, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/mopo/html/index.en.html

  75. 15%

    Called

    Will China's Ministry of Commerce publish an announcement lifting or suspending its January 2026 ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan by 31 October 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if, by 2027-10-31, the Ministry of Commerce website carries an official announcement that revokes, suspends or ends the export restrictions on dual-use items to Japan that it announced in January 2026. NO if no such announcement appears on the site by that date.
    Source
    China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) official announcements, https://english.mofcom.gov.cn/

  76. 62%

    Called

    Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 7 November 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    On the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendars and meeting materials page, YES if the December 2026 meeting statement raises the federal funds target range; NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
    Source
    Federal Reserve, https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

  77. 36%

    Called

    Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in October 2027?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if Destatis reports that real, seasonally and calendar-adjusted manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month for October 2027. NO if it reports a smaller increase, no increase, or no October figure on the page by the resolve date.
    Source
    German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2027/12/

  78. 74%

    Called

    Will the World Bank's annual average urea price for 2027 be lower than its annual average urea price for 2026?

    Resolves by · Call Card

    Decided by
    YES if the World Bank's annual commodity price data on this page, as published by 15 January 2028, shows a 2027 annual average urea price below the 2026 annual average. NO if the 2027 average is equal or higher, or is not published by that date.
    Source
    World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets