Who Pays · Americas
Trump keeps foreign policy power after Democrats take Congress
Congress can slow nominees and funding, but presidents still control choices on Iran, Israel, Ukraine and China.
Archive · through Nov 8, 2026
World
Chokepoints, sanctions and hazards: what changed this week, measured, beside ARCANE's reporting.
● Binding 03● Watch 02● Open 05PortWatch data to Nov 1, 2026
What changedNewest first · read 15:50 UTC, Nov 9
Sanctions · OFAC
OFAC published “Notice of OFAC Sanctions Actions”.
17 OFAC and BIS documents in the Federal Register in 30 days, 5 in the last 7. OFAC's SDN list of Nov 6 holds 19,563 entries, 1,570 of them ships.
Federal Register · Nov 9, 2026 · read 10:46 UTC, Nov 9 · Lists, ships by flag and the Entity List →
ARCANE reported
Against Interest · Oct 31, 2026North Korea says sanctions cannot change its nuclear statusChain Reaction · Oct 29, 2026United States sanctions Rwanda over alleged Congo rebel supportOpen Calls on this
Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-11-10?62% yes · resolves by Nov 10, 2026Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-12-15?65% yes · resolves by Dec 15, 2026Every Call, scored in public →- Nov 9Earthquake · M6.4A magnitude 6.4 earthquake struck 30 km WSW of Lata, Solomon Islands.USGS rates its likely impact green. 1 significant earthquake in the past week.USGS · read 13:27 UTC, Nov 9
- Nov 5Storm at seaSuper Typhoon In-fa, 60 knots, at 29.4°N 141.5°E.The strongest of 1 storm open in NASA's tracker, by its latest reported sustained wind.NASA EONET · read 13:27 UTC, Nov 9
- Nov 5National emergency · continuedThe national emergency “Iran” was continued for another year.In force since 1979 under Executive Order 12170; it lapses on Nov 14 unless continued again.Federal Register · read 10:46 UTC, Nov 9ARCANETrump keeps foreign policy power after Democrats take CongressOpen Call · 62% yesWill the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 11 November 2026?
- Nov 1Hormuz · BindingHormuz carried 4.4 ships a day in the week to Nov 1, +35% on the week before.That is −95% against 85.1, its normal for the same week of 2019–2023, half or less, so the register marks it Binding. The Cape of Good Hope, the way round Africa, carried +102% against its own normal that week.IMF PortWatch · read 10:46 UTC, Nov 9ARCANETraffic through Hormuz rises despite reports of mines striking tankers
- Nov 1Bosphorus · BindingBosphorus carried 44.4 ships a day in the week to Nov 1, −17% on the week before.That is −56% against 101, its normal for the same week of 2019–2023, half or less, so the register marks it Binding.IMF PortWatch · read 10:46 UTC, Nov 9
The narrows · IMF PortWatch, week Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026
Hormuz is carrying 4.4 ships a day. Its normal is 85. The Cape of Good Hope is carrying 102% more than normal.
858ships a day through the ten passages on the register, against a normal of 994: −14%.
Each mark is five ships a day. The opening is traffic as a share of normal; the ticks mark where the banks would stand at normal.
PortWatch data to Nov 1, 2026. Normal is the same days averaged over 2019–2023. Counts come from ships' AIS transponders; a ship sailing dark is not counted. IMF PortWatch → The world, moving: every passage on the map, each ship a moving dot →
God's Eye View
See ARCANE's reporting from above
87 published stories pinned at the places they name on a 3D globe, with the day's earthquakes, data centres and dams. The open-source God's Eye View by Bilawal Sidhu; it loads only when you open it.
Open the globeChokepoint registerShips a day from IMF PortWatch, against the same week of 2019–2023
The register as a table, with the week before and 13 months
| Passage | State | Ships a day | Week before | Vs normal | 13 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama | Open | 27.3 | 28.7 | −17% | |
| Gibraltar | Open | 131.6 | 116.4 | +1% | |
| Bosphorus | Binding | 44.4 | 53.7 | −56% | |
| Suez | Watch | 43 | 41.3 | −33% | |
| Bab el-Mandeb | Binding | 27.3 | 28.9 | −57% | |
| Hormuz | Binding | 4.4 | 3.3 | −95% | |
| Malacca | Open | 202.7 | 228 | +12% | |
| Taiwan Strait | Open | 247 | 190 | +3% | |
| Cape of Good Hope | Open | 92 | 87.1 | +102% | |
| Danish straits | Watch | 38.7 | 42.9 | −23% |
PortWatch data to Nov 1, 2026, week Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Binding at half of normal or less, Watch a fifth to a half below. Counts come from ships' AIS transponders; a ship sailing dark is not counted. IMF PortWatch → Where the Red Sea traffic went →
Sanctions and export controlsSDN list of Nov 6, 2026
19,563 entries on OFAC's SDN list, 1,570 of them ships.
- Nov 9, 2026 · OFACNotice of OFAC Sanctions Actions
- Nov 9, 2026 · BISExtension of the Suspension of Expansion of End-User Controls for Affiliates of Certain Listed Entities
- Nov 9, 2026 · OFACNotice of OFAC Sanctions Action
- Nov 6, 2026 · BISAgency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Application Process To Waive the Import Qualification Criteria Measures To Restrict Stockpiling of Polysilicon and Polysilicon Derivatives
- Nov 6, 2026 · BISAgency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for Review and Approval; Comment Request; Section 232 National Security Adjustments to Imports of Specialty Pharmaceuticals and Associated Ingredients
Emergencies in force44 continued
- Declared Aug 26, 2026Declaring a National Emergency To Secure the United States Bulk-Power System
- Declared Jan 29, 2026Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba
- Due Nov 12, 2026Threat From Securities Investments That Finance Certain Companies of the People's Republic of China5 years in force · Executive Order 13959
- Due Nov 14, 2026Iran46 years in force · Executive Order 12170
- Due Nov 14, 2026Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction31 years in force · Executive Order 12938
- Due Nov 27, 2026Situation in Nicaragua7 years in force · Executive Order 13851
More from World
Published reporting, current work first, archive labelled
Early WarningTrump floats a vague Ukraine deal for EuropeNov 6, 2026 · Geopolitics
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Ground Truth · Oct 31, 2026 · ShippingSuez traffic remains below normal as carriers returnShipping lines and ports face a stop-start recovery because some services still avoid the canal on return voyages.Who Pays · Oct 30, 2026 · GeopoliticsTrump’s foreign policy could hurt Republicans in the midtermsPolls show disapproval of Trump’s handling of the war, but few voters expect to think about foreign policy when they cast their ballots.