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Markets

Markets

Every market on one page, from the institutions that publish the numbers: the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the EIA and the CFTC. Each figure carries its source and the day it describes; a source that does not answer is left blank and says so.

Every figure is fetched from its publisher and shown with the date it describes. The lead story is ARCANE’s newest Markets investigation.

Moved most · Thu Nov 5 · Volatility

VIX rose 11.6 pt, 9.9× a usual day

28.18

+11.6 pt on the day

Level, Aug 11 to Nov 5Each day’s move; the shaded band is a usual day (±1.2 pt)

Cboe via FRED · data for Nov 5, 2026 · a usual day is the standard deviation of the 63 daily moves before it

Why it stands out

  • 9.9×the size of a usual VIX day (±1.2 pt) over the past three months.
  • 12 moThe largest VIX move in the data ARCANE reads, back to Nov 5, 2025.

What moves with it

  • S&P 500−0.90−4.36% Nov 5
  • Nasdaq Composite−0.85+1.09% Nov 6
  • Dow Jones−0.75−0.46% Nov 6

Correlation of daily moves over three months: 1 moves the same way every day, −1 the opposite way.

On ARCANE

What moved most

Each market’s latest move against its own usual day, largest first
  1. 01VIXCboe via FRED · Nov 528.18+11.6 pt9.9×
  2. 02S&P 500FRED · Nov 57,353.73−4.36%6.6×
  3. 03High-yield spreadICE BofA via FRED · Nov 5348 bp+16 bp2.6×
  4. 04Investment-grade spreadICE BofA via FRED · Nov 593 bp+2 bp1.6×
  5. 05CopperYahoo Finance · Nov 9$6.34+1.96%1.5×
  6. 06Natural gasEIA via FRED · Nov 3$2.63+3.54%0.9×
  7. 07Nasdaq CompositeFRED · Nov 624,579.42+1.09%0.9×
  8. 082-year TreasuryU.S. Treasury · Nov 64.51%+5 bp0.9×
  9. 09GoldYahoo Finance · Nov 9$4,122.80+1.18%0.9×
  10. 102s10s spreadU.S. Treasury · Nov 635 bp−3 bp0.9×
  11. 11USD/MXNECB · Nov 918.6137−0.48%0.9×
  12. 12EUR/USDECB · Nov 91.1193+0.25%0.8×
  13. 13GBP/USDECB · Nov 91.3416+0.23%0.8×
  14. 14AUD/USDECB · Nov 90.6894+0.34%0.7×
  15. 15PlatinumYahoo Finance · Nov 9$1,560.20+1.43%0.7×
  16. 16SilverYahoo Finance · Nov 9$52.59+1.52%0.7×
  17. 17Dow JonesFRED · Nov 651,285.73−0.46%0.6×
  18. 18USD/JPYECB · Nov 9157.95−0.24%0.5×
  19. 1910-year TreasuryU.S. Treasury · Nov 64.86%+2 bp0.4×
  20. 20USD/CNYECB · Nov 96.6728+0.02%0.3×
  21. 21WheatYahoo Finance · Nov 9588.50 ¢−0.47%0.3×
  22. 22SoybeansYahoo Finance · Nov 91,192.25 ¢+0.27%0.3×
  23. 2330-year TreasuryU.S. Treasury · Nov 65.26%+1 bp0.2×
  24. 24CornYahoo Finance · Nov 9440.25 ¢−0.28%0.2×
  25. 25WTI crudeEIA via FRED · Nov 3$99.64−0.42%0.1×
  26. 26Brent crudeEIA via FRED · Nov 3$107.03−0.34%0.1×

A usual day is the standard deviation of the 63 daily moves before the latest; 2× is twice that. Prices move in percent, yields and spreads in basis points. A market whose last print is more than six days old is left out.

Across markets

Each figure from its own source, on its own date

S&P 500

7,353.73

−4.4% on the day

FRED · Nov 5

10-year Treasury

4.86%

+2 bp on the day

U.S. Treasury · Nov 6

2s10s spread

35bp

−3 bp in a week

U.S. Treasury · Nov 6

SOFR

3.89%

−3 bp on the day

New York Fed · Nov 6

High-yield spread

348bp

+22 bp in a week

ICE BofA via FRED · Nov 5

EUR/USD

1.1193

+0.25% on the day

ECB fix · Nov 9

WTI crude

$99.64

−0.4% on the day

EIA via FRED · Nov 3

Gold

$4,122.80

+1.2% on the day

Futures, Yahoo Finance · Nov 9

On Nov 6, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 bp to 4.86%, and the 2-year rose 5 bp to 4.51%. SOFR printed 3.89% for Nov 6, 2026, 14 bp above the bottom of the Fed’s 3.75–4.00% range (25 bp wide). On Nov 5, 2026 high-yield bonds paid 348 bp over Treasuries, at or above 89% of days in three years; investment grade paid 93 bp. On Nov 5, 2026 the S&P 500 fell 4.4%; it is up 7.4% this year. The VIX closed at 28.18 on Nov 5, 2026.

How markets moved together

Three months of daily moves, compared pair by pair
S&P 500NasdaqVIX2-year10-yearHigh yieldEUR/USDUSD/JPYWTIGold
Nasdaq0.96
VIX−0.90−0.85
2-year0.070.17−0.18
10-year−0.010.13−0.080.80
High yield−0.64−0.690.57−0.37−0.23
EUR/USD0.10−0.01−0.11−0.08−0.18−0.09
USD/JPY−0.10−0.070.050.260.27−0.05−0.39
WTI−0.37−0.300.290.180.190.16−0.04−0.04
Gold0.01−0.020.030.070.02−0.100.190.110.02
Copper0.120.09−0.07−0.04−0.10−0.180.12−0.09−0.060.42

Moved most alikeNasdaq Composite and S&P 5000.96

Moved most opposedVIX and S&P 500−0.90

Each square is the correlation of two markets’ daily moves over the last 63 days both printed, Jul 15 to Nov 9, 2026. Blue moved together, amber moved apart; the deeper the colour, the stronger the link. For yields and spreads a move is a change in basis points.

Donald Trump sits at a desk with U.S. flags in the background, raising his hands as he speaks.

Who Pays · Lead

AI stocks came under pressure after Democrats’ victories

The wider market rallied first, but AI-linked stocks and data-center companies now face questions about regulation and local limits.

2d ago

Archive · through Nov 7, 2026

Open Calls on markets

Dated forecasts on the public ledger, scored when they resolve

Every Call and how it resolved: Track record.

Every Markets page

Each one reads its own sources
RatesThe Treasury curve, its spreads, real yields and breakevens, bills and auctions.Cash & fundingSOFR and fed funds against the Fed’s range, its facilities, commercial paper and reserves.CreditCorporate spreads by rating and maturity, all-in yields and bank lending standards.EquitiesThe indexes, the eleven sectors, equal weight against cap weight and the VIX.CurrenciesThe dollar against fourteen currencies from the ECB’s fixes, and the Fed’s broad dollar index.CommoditiesOil and gas prices and US stocks from the EIA; metals and grains futures.Central banksSeven policy rates from the banks’ own data, every change in five years.CalendarJobs, inflation, GDP, Fed decisions and Treasury auctions due in the next four weeks.PositioningFutures positioning from the CFTC’s weekly report.

Due in the next two weeks

From the BLS, BEA and Fed schedules, Eastern time
Tue Nov 108:30 a.m. ETBLSReal Earnings
8:30 a.m. ETBLSConsumer Price Index
Fri Nov 138:30 a.m. ETBLSProducer Price Index
Tue Nov 178:30 a.m. ETBLSU.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
10:00 a.m. ETBEAExperimental Super Intelligence Economic Statistics, 2024
Wed Nov 1810:00 a.m. ETBLSEmployer-Reported Workplace Injuries and Illnesses (Annual)
10:00 a.m. ETBEAOutdoor Recreation Economic Statistics, U.S. and States, 2025
Fri Nov 208:30 a.m. ETBEAActivities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2024
10:00 a.m. ETBLSState Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)

The full four weeks, with Treasury auctions: Calendar. The sentences on the board are written from its figures alone; ARCANE shows no forecasts or consensus figures.

More Markets reporting

Published investigations, newest first
A high-rise tower under construction with cranes beside a river, likely the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt.

Who Pays

Knot and De Cos are the only ECB candidates

If Knot is chosen, a Dutch member of the ECB board would have to resign.

rates · Nov 8, 2026

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C., with columns and a statue in front.

The Numbers Disagree

Strong jobs data pushes Treasury yields higher

Higher Treasury yields put pressure on bond holders and stock buyers as investors consider another Federal Reserve rate increase.

Rates · Nov 7, 2026

The Bank of Spain headquarters in Madrid, an ornate stone building seen from across a road.

Who Pays

Spain and the Netherlands nominate candidates to lead the European Central Bank

The next ECB president must reach agreement with central bank governors from economies facing different financial conditions, while interest-rate decisions remain tied to economic data.

rates · Nov 6, 2026

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington with the Albert Gallatin statue in front.

The Numbers Disagree

Treasury yields fall as traders await jobless claims

Bond buyers and borrowers face uncertainty over jobless claims and the fiscal outlook after the election.

Rates · Nov 5, 2026

Sources

Every number above, where it comes from and when it was read