For information
On the question “Will China's Ministry of Commerce publish an announcement lifting or suspending its January 2026 ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan by 1 April 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 6%, settling by 1 Apr 2027.
Settled by: China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) official announcements
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
China shipped no gallium, dysprosium, terbium, or yttrium to Japan in June, extending the export freeze on key rare earth materials.
Crux Investor · 20 Jul 2026 · claim C10
Japan imported just 13 tons of dysprosium in 1H26, down 82% from the same period in 2024, with imports falling to zero in January, February, May, and June.
TrendForce (summarising Nikkei) · 17 Aug 2026 · claim C7
China exported about 14 tons a month of the two minerals to Japan in 2024.
Reuters (via Kitco News) · 22 May 2026 · claim C1
Where it lands
Touches equities, commodities across asia-pacific.
Pro adds the exposure map: which assets are touched, where, which way, and what would change it. See plans
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- Customs data shows shipments to Japan returning toward the roughly 14 tons a month that Reuters reported for 2024, or worldwide magnet exports fall as steeply as China's July magnet shipments to Japan did.
- The call resolves NO if no such announcement appears on the site by that date.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans