For information
On the question “Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 20 December 2026?” ARCANE puts the chance at 62%, settling by 20 Dec 2026.
Settled by: Federal Reserve
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors assessed a stronger-than-expected October jobs report, which strengthened the case for another rate hike at next month's Federal Reserve policy meeting.
www.cnbc.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C1
The unexpectedly strong figures prompted traders to increase bets on a December rate hike, with futures markets pricing approximately an 80% probability of a quarter-point increase shortly after the announcement.
coinpaper.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C13
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield increased more than 2 basis points to 4.864%.
www.cnbc.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C2
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The benchmark yield leads, or both yields fall as equity weakness brings a flight to quality.
- The call resolves NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans