For information
On the question “Will Lynas Rare Earths' quarterly report for the three months to 31 March 2027 show combined dysprosium and terbium production of 10 metric tons or more?” ARCANE puts the chance at 40%, settling by 7 May 2027.
Settled by: Lynas Rare Earths announcements on the Australian Securities Exchange
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
In the first quarter of 2026, Lynas produced 8 metric tons of dysprosium and terbium.
Reuters (via Kitco News) · 22 May 2026 · claim C16
Sojitz and JOGMEC have entered into an agreement with Lynas to supply up to 65% of the HRE (dysprosium and terbium) produced by Lynas from Mt. Weld feedstock to the Japanese market.
Sojitz Corporation (press release) · 7 Mar 2023 · claim C4
China exported about 14 tons a month of the two minerals to Japan in 2024.
Reuters (via Kitco News) · 22 May 2026 · claim C1
Where it lands
Touches equities, commodities across asia-pacific.
Pro adds the exposure map: which assets are touched, where, which way, and what would change it. See plans
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- Customs data shows shipments to Japan returning toward the roughly 14 tons a month that Reuters reported for 2024, or worldwide magnet exports fall as steeply as China's July magnet shipments to Japan did.
- The call resolves NO if the stated figure is below 10 tons.
- The call resolves NO if the report gives no such figure by that date.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans