For information
On the question “Will the World Bank report a monthly average urea price below $600 per metric ton for any month from September 2026 onward, in data published by 15 January 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 33%, settling by 15 Jan 2027.
Settled by: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet)
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Nitrogen (urea) prices climbed above $850 per metric ton in April, up 80 percent since February and the highest level since April 2022.
World Bank Data Blog – Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten su… · 14 May 2026 · claim C5
Urea prices are projected to rise nearly 60 percent in 2026 before easing in 2027 as Middle East exports recover and natural gas prices moderate.
World Bank Data Blog – Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten su… · 14 May 2026 · claim C7
USDA does project that fuel and fertilizer prices will drop in 2027 as the Strait of Hormuz opens and resumes normal traffic.
American Farm Bureau Federation – Market Intel (Jun 18, 2026) · 18 Jun 2026 · claim C11
Where it lands
Touches commodities, futures, equities across global.
Pro adds the exposure map: which assets are touched, where, which way, and what would change it. See plans
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- Urea holds at or above $850 per metric ton into 2027, so a legume planted now would deliver its credit at shock-level prices.
- The call resolves NO if every such month is at or above $600 or is not published by that date.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans