For information
On the question “Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 8 May 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 62%, settling by 8 May 2027.
Settled by: Federal Reserve
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors assessed a stronger-than-expected October jobs report, which strengthened the case for another rate hike at next month's Federal Reserve policy meeting.
www.cnbc.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C1
The unexpectedly strong figures prompted traders to increase bets on a December rate hike, with futures markets pricing approximately an 80% probability of a quarter-point increase shortly after the announcement.
coinpaper.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C13
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield increased more than 2 basis points to 4.864%.
www.cnbc.com · 6 Nov 2026 · claim C2
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The benchmark yield leads, or both yields fall as equity weakness brings a flight to quality.
- The call resolves NO if it leaves the range unchanged or lowers it.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans