For information
On the question “Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-11-10?” ARCANE puts the chance at 62%, settling by 10 Nov 2026.
Settled by: U.S. Department of the Treasury
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Stocks are being undercut by today’s +3 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and a rally of more than +2% in oil prices.
es.tradingview.com · 28 Oct 2026 · claim C6
The action was much stronger in the bond market, where the yield on the two-year Treasury initially climbed after the Fed announced it was holding the federal funds rate steady.
www.theglobeandmail.com · retrieved 31 Oct 2026 · claim C1
But the two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks expectations for Fed action, quickly reversed course.
www.theglobeandmail.com · retrieved 31 Oct 2026 · claim C2
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- A follow-up market recap shows longer yields falling while the short yield also declines, matching C14.
- CME Group data show traders adding back bets for Fed increases by next summer, making the move a policy-path repricing rather than a curve split.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans