For information
On the question “Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on April 30, 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 70%, settling by 30 Apr 2027.
Settled by: U.S. Department of the Treasury
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
The two-year Treasury yield fell 6.3 basis points to 4.670%, while the 10-year yield declined 5.4 basis points to 4.990%, according to Tradeweb.
marketscreener.com · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C1
T-note prices are seeing some downward pressure from today’s stronger-than-expected US GDP report and supply overhang, as the Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year T-notes later today.
www.tradingview.com · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C10
The 30-year bond yield fell 6.03 basis points to 5.3007%.
www.aol.com · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C4
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The read breaks if Tradeweb shows Treasury yields rising when strong growth or Treasury supply becomes the dominant news.
- The call resolves NO if it is below 4.990%.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans