For information
On the question “Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 4 December 2026?” ARCANE puts the chance at 67%, settling by 4 Dec 2026.
Settled by: CME Group
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Finance Biggo reported that a drop in West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased Middle East supply concerns and, in turn, market worries about continued Federal Reserve tightening.
finance.biggo.com · 2 Nov 2026 · claim C18
Oil has weakened because of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, but there is still little evidence of an actual breakthrough, Amarpreet Singh of Barclays said in a note.
www.tradingview.com · 4 Nov 2026 · claim C4
Oil futures have suffered a sharp risk‑premium washout, with front‑month WTI and Brent dropping around 7–9% and the forward curve flattening markedly as traders reassess geopolitical and supply risks.
commodity-board.com · 3 Nov 2026 · claim C1
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- WTI and Brent regain the washed-out risk premium if reports show Hormuz disruption or diplomacy fails to move beyond signals and reports of talks.
- The call resolves NO if it is below $96.50 or no settlement is published for that date.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans