For information
On the question “Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 29 January 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 65%, settling by 29 Jan 2027.
Settled by: MarketWatch
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
However, a tech stock selloff triggered rotation of funds into the bond market, and the US Dollar Index reversed to close down 0.15% at 102.037, while the US 10-Year Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.94%.
finance.biggo.com · 30 Oct 2026 · claim C5
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The yen was steady on Friday ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision, while the dollar tracked Treasury yields lower as a fresh wave of selling in AI shares triggered a flight to safety.
dunyanews.tv · 30 Oct 2026 · claim C1
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note was last 4.8958% and that on the 30-year bond fell to 5.2623%, both at their lowest in over a month.
dunyanews.tv · 30 Oct 2026 · claim C2
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The read breaks if the dollar firms while US 2-year or 10-year Treasury yields fall.
- The call resolves NO if it shows a higher value.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans