For information
On the question “Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-12-15?” ARCANE puts the chance at 65%, settling by 15 Dec 2026.
Settled by: Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
It consists of 11 countries, including South Korea, the United States, Japan, Australia and Canada.
en.yna.co.kr · 31 Oct 2026 · claim C6
Korea slams multination statement backing anti-Pyongyang sanctions as 'strategic failure'
en.yna.co.kr · 31 Oct 2026 · claim C1
The official went on to stress that "futile" sanctions and pressure will "never work" on North Korea, nor will they affect its position as a nuclear weapons state.
en.yna.co.kr · 31 Oct 2026 · claim C3
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The read breaks if the next statement drops the nuclear weapons state status claim and focuses only on sanctions enforcement.
- The call resolves NO if it names fewer than 11 or no member list is published there.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans