For information
On the question “Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 28 January 2027?” ARCANE puts the chance at 62%, settling by 28 Jan 2027.
Settled by: European Central Bank
A probability is ARCANE’s estimate from the evidence listed here. It is not a guarantee, and an estimate that has not been scored is not evidence of skill.
Why: three receipts
Lagarde's decision to finish her term early came hours before the bank's latest rate decision, in which rates are expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%.
Scottish Financial News · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C8
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday morning that Lagarde would step down as its president on 7 February 2027; her term was scheduled to run until the end of October next year.
www.theguardian.com · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C2
European Council President Antonio Costa said a process to find her successor would start immediately.
www.dw.com · 29 Oct 2026 · claim C3
What the market says
No market asks this question with this threshold, and a market with a different threshold is a different question. So this card states no edge.
For information, because no market asks this exact question, so there is no price to compare with; and the Ledger has 2 resolved calls of the 10 it needs before a score means anything.
The edge is the gap between two probabilities. It is not a prediction of profit.
What would change our mind
- The read breaks if no successor is formally named by the time Lagarde leaves.
- The call resolves NO if it shows a higher rate.
Depth
Pro adds the assumptions, the base rate and the full evidence. See plans