Herzog chooses Eisenkot over Netanyahu to form a government

Eisenkot has been given the first chance to form the country’s next government, but his opening advantage is a negotiating trap. Herzog tasked the former army chief after parties representing 67 lawmakers backed him against 46 for Netanyahu’s bloc, Al Jazeera reported Saturday.

The hinge is whether parties that wanted Netanyahu blocked can agree to govern together. Eisenkot’s four-party alliance won 48 seats while Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc secured 53, leaving both short of the majority needed to govern, Al Jazeera reported.

Netanyahu will not vanish while Eisenkot negotiates. Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker government until a new coalition is formed, or until another election must be held if no candidate succeeds, Al Jazeera reported Friday. That keeps the incumbent inside the system while his rival tries to assemble one.

The arithmetic flatters Eisenkot before it binds him. His own alliance was 13 seats short of the threshold on election night, and Netanyahu’s bloc was 8 seats short, on the counts reported by Al Jazeera. The recommendations changed who gets the first attempt, not the distance between campaign blocs and a governing majority.

Israel’s October 27 election left neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot with a clear path to a parliamentary majority, Al Jazeera reported Friday. That is why Herzog’s choice has weight. It also explains why the appointment is a beginning rather than a transfer of power.

The second problem is composition. WFMD reported Saturday that a majority of lawmakers recommended Eisenkot for the first opportunity but had not agreed on how a government should be formed. The same report said agreements would have to cross divides over military service and cooperation with Arab lawmakers.

Eisenkot narrowed one route before the bargaining fully began. He has ruled out forming a government with the Arab-led parties, Al Jazeera reported Saturday. That position complicates the recommendation math that put him ahead, because those parties were part of the endorsement count that lifted him over Netanyahu.

If that route stays closed, the pressure shifts to parties that had sat closer to Netanyahu. Without the Arab-Israeli parties, the Joint List and the United Arab List, Eisenkot would need to convince ultra-Orthodox parties previously in Netanyahu’s coalition to side with him, ABC reported Sunday.

That is not a straight swap. Middle East Eye reported Saturday that United Torah Judaism, which had backed Netanyahu after the previous five elections, declined to recommend him this time, though it did not back Eisenkot either. Abstention weakens Netanyahu’s claim without automatically building Eisenkot’s government.

Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker government while Eisenkot tries to form a coalition. Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition lost its majority in the election but still emerged as the largest bloc in parliament. He remains in office unless a new coalition is formed, or through another election if no candidate succeeds.

The Clock Now Has Value

Eisenkot’s mandate creates a hard bargaining window. He will have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to build a coalition holding at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, Al Jazeera reported Saturday. A delay now costs time that Netanyahu can survive as caretaker.

Herzog will invite Eisenkot to his residence to formally offer him the chance to form a government at 5pm on Sunday local time, 2am AEDT, ABC reported.

Arab-majority lists gain attention even if Eisenkot keeps them outside a cabinet. Both endorsed him during party consultations with Herzog and could play kingmakers after unprecedented gains, gulfnews.com reported. The Joint List said it wanted to widen Eisenkot’s lead and improve the chances of replacing the incumbent government, Middle East Eye reported. Al Jazeera reported that Eisenkot had ruled out forming a government with the Arab-led parties.

The ultra-Orthodox parties gain a different kind of weight. ABC’s account makes them the alternative path if Arab-Israeli backing is excluded, while Middle East Eye’s report shows at least one such party declined to give Netanyahu its usual recommendation. Eisenkot needs movement from one camp that he has ruled out or another that has not yet joined him.

The mandate can still succeed without a full majority at the start. Al Jazeera reported Saturday that Eisenkot could form a government with fewer than the threshold if he wins a parliamentary confidence vote. That route would turn the decisive moment from endorsement totals into whether opponents are willing to let a cabinet take office.

The deadline test is a coalition agreement or a confidence vote before Eisenkot’s mandate expires. If neither route succeeds, Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker government, and another election must be held if no candidate succeeds.