Prediction markets
What traders are paying, right now, for the outcomes that move portfolios: the Fed and the US data calendar on Kalshi; war, energy and trade on Polymarket.
Fed, Dec 2026
80%
Hike 25 bp
CPI, next print
3.7%
Even-odds level, year on year
Recession this year
2%
−1 pts on the week
Markets read
22
Kalshi and Polymarket
The US data calendar
Kalshi · each contract settles on the official release| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decision in Dec 2026?Kalshi | Hike 25 bp80% +9 ptsHold21% −8 ptsCut 25 bp2% −1 pts | Dec 9 | 111,844 contracts |
| CPI YoY in NovemberKalshi | Above 3.6%80% −5 ptsAbove 3.7%59% −16 ptsAbove 3.8%18% −43 ptsEven odds at 3.7% | Dec 10 | 11,606 contracts |
| Jobs numbers in Nov 2026?Kalshi | Above 70K57% +15 ptsAbove 80K49% +12 ptsAbove 90K45% +13 ptsEven odds at 78K | Dec 4 | 364 contracts |
| Unemployment in NovemberKalshi | Above 4.0%81% +1 ptsAbove 4.1%48% −10 ptsAbove 4.2%5% −26 ptsEven odds at 4.1% | Dec 4 | 226 contracts |
| US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?Kalshi | Above 2.5%70% +5 ptsAbove 3.0%53% +2 ptsAbove 3.5%31% +3 ptsEven odds at 3.1% | Jan 28 | 126 contracts |
| Recession this year?Kalshi | Yes2% −1 pts | Jan 31 | 15,771 contracts |
| Recession in 2027?Kalshi | Yes22% −1 pts | Jan 31 | 3,578 contracts |
Kalshi public market data · read Nov 9, 10:50 AM EST · priced Nov 9, 10:50 AM EST
The Fed, venue against venue
Fed decision in Dec 2026The same meeting priced on two venues. A gap of more than a few points is a disagreement between two sets of traders, or a difference in how each contract resolves; either is worth knowing before quoting one of them.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut more than 25 bp | 1% | <1% | +1 pts |
| Cut 25 bp | 2% | <1% | +1 pts |
| Hold | 21% | 20% | +1 pts |
| Hike 25 bp | 80% | 80% | 0 pts |
| Hike more than 25 bp | 2% | <1% | +1 pts |
War, energy and trade
Polymarket · markets with at least $25,000 of liquidity| Question | Price · week’s move | Closes | Traded, 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shipping lanes | |||
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?Polymarket | November 155% −13 ptsNovember 3022% −7 ptsDecember 3141% −3 ptsMarch 3169% +4 pts | Nov 16 | $1.1M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket | Yes10% −3 pts | Jan 1 | $333K |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?Polymarket | November 3017% −13 ptsDecember 3137% −3 pts | Dec 1 | $141K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Polymarket | Yes4% −3 pts | Dec 1 | $97K |
| Energy and commodities | |||
| What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?Polymarket | ↓ $8577% +31 pts↑ $9550%↓ $8045% +22 pts↑ $10029% −42 pts | Dec 1 | $186K |
| Crude Oil all time high by...?Polymarket | December 316% −8 ptsMarch 31, 202718% −9 pts | Jan 1 | $99K |
| US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?Polymarket | November 3011% −16 ptsDecember 3131% −13 pts | Dec 1 | $41K |
| What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?Polymarket | ↓ $3,5008% −7 pts↓ $3,0003% −1 pts↓ $2,500<1% −1 pts↑ $5,0006% +2 pts | Dec 31 | $33K |
| Conflict and diplomacy | |||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Polymarket | November 1594% +27 ptsNovember 2285% +28 ptsNovember 3078% +24 ptsDecember 1568% +24 pts | Nov 16 | $957K |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket | Yes10% −8 pts | Jan 1 | $679K |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)Polymarket | November 1546%November 2253%November 3061%December 3180% | Nov 15 | $361K |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?Polymarket | November 30, 202628% +1 ptsDecember 31, 202643% +1 pts | Dec 1 | $227K |
| Trade and tariffs | |||
| Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?Polymarket | Vietnam13% +2 ptsIsrael11% −1 ptsJapan9% +2 ptsMexico9% −6 pts | Jan 1 | $689 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?Polymarket | November 3030% −2 ptsDecember 3140% −19 pts | Dec 1 | $213 |
| U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?Polymarket | 5–15%91% +3 pts15–25%8% −1 pts<5%1% −2 pts | Dec 31 | $9 |
Polymarket · read Nov 9, 10:50 AM EST · priced Nov 9, 10:50 AM EST
How to read a price
Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, so its price reads as the market’s probability: 64¢ is 64%. It is what the last traders paid, not a forecast by anyone in particular. Thin books move on small money, and a contract’s resolution rule can differ from the question as you would ask it; open the market before you quote it.
The week’s move is in percentage points against the price about seven days earlier. For a ladder of levels (CPI above 3.5%, above 3.6% …) the page prints the level the market puts at even odds, interpolated between the two rungs either side of 50%.
Venues this read: Kalshi answered · Polymarket answered · Nov 9, 2026