Satellite & environment
The physical conditions that reach crop, power, freight and insurance prices: the state of El Niño, the storms at sea, the week’s major earthquakes and the natural events seen from orbit.
ENSO status
El Niño
Advisory · NOAA, Oct 8
Niño 3.4
+3.3°C
Week of Nov 4
Tropical cyclones
1
Strongest: Pena, 35 kt
Quakes M6+, 7 days
3
85 at M4.5 or more
El Niño and La Niña
NOAA Climate Prediction CenterEl Niño Advisory · NOAA’s synopsis, Oct 8, 2026El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).
Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature against normal, weekly
Latest +3.3°C, in the very strong El Niño range by NOAA’s thresholds. The other regions that week: Niño 1+2 +5.6°C, Niño 3 +4.4°C, Niño 4 +1.5°C.
| Season | Oceanic Niño Index |
|---|---|
| JFM 2026 | −0.2°C |
| FMA 2026 | +0.1°C |
| MAM 2026 | +0.5°C |
| AMJ 2026 | +0.9°C |
| MJJ 2026 | +1.4°C |
| JJA 2026 | +1.8°C |
| JAS 2026 | +2.2°C |
| ASO 2026 | +2.5°C |
Three-month running means of the Niño 3.4 anomaly; five overlapping seasons at +0.5°C or more make an El Niño episode. NOAA’s next discussion is due Nov 12, 2026.
NOAA Climate Prediction Center · read Nov 10, 12:04 PM EST · data to Nov 4, 2026
Tropical cyclones
Active now, strongest first| Storm | Basin | Wind | Pressure | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PenaTropical storm | Central Pacific | 35 kt | 1004 mb | 11.1N, 164.7W |
| Typhoon CempakaFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 90 kts | — | Nov 10, 1:00 AM EST |
| Tropical Cyclone 03SFrom NASA’s event list | Outside NOAA’s basins | 25 kts | — | Nov 8, 1:00 PM EST |
NOAA National Hurricane Center · read Nov 10, 12:08 PM EST · advisory of Nov 10, 10:00 AM EST
Significant earthquakes
Past seven days: magnitude 6 or more, or any impact alert| M6.4 | 30 km WSW of Lata, Solomon IslandsNov 8, 10:34 PM EST · impact alert green |
| M6.1 | 144 km SE of Hasaki, JapanNov 6, 5:39 AM EST · impact alert green |
| M6.1 | Fiji regionNov 5, 12:21 PM EST · impact alert green |
The impact alert is USGS PAGER’s estimate of fatalities and economic loss: green is little, yellow to red is increasingly severe.
US Geological Survey · read Nov 10, 12:08 PM EST · feed of Nov 10, 12:08 PM EST
Seen from orbit
NASA’s open natural events, past 30 days25 wildfires · 11 sea and lake ice · 3 severe storms
| Iceberg B22ASea and Lake Ice · Nov 6 |
| Iceberg A84Sea and Lake Ice · Nov 6 |
| Iceberg A81Sea and Lake Ice · Nov 6 |
| Iceberg D35Sea and Lake Ice · Nov 6 |
| Iceberg A85Sea and Lake Ice · Nov 6 |
| Iceberg C39Sea and Lake Ice · Oct 30 |
| Iceberg B22KSea and Lake Ice · Oct 30 |
| Iceberg D33BSea and Lake Ice · Oct 30 |
NASA EONET · read Nov 10, 12:08 PM EST · newest observation Nov 10, 1:00 AM EST
Why these, and their limits
El Niño and La Niña shift rainfall and temperature across the tropics for months at a time. Historically a strong El Niño has meant drier seasons in Australia, Southeast Asia and India (wheat, palm oil, sugar), low water for the Panama Canal and fewer Atlantic hurricanes; NOAA stresses that a strong event raises the odds of these effects without guaranteeing any of them.
Storms, quakes and fires matter to prices when they reach ports, refineries, farms or insured property. Each list here is the measuring agency’s own; ARCANE adds no estimate of damage.
ARCANE reporting
No published ARCANE story is on these conditions yet.