World · Substitution

Where the traffic went

When a passage binds, ships take the long way. Each passage below sits beside the route that replaces it, both counted by IMF PortWatch against the same week of 2019–2023. Cape of Good Hope carries 46.5 more ships a day than normal, 128% of the 36.2 missing at Bab el-Mandeb.

PortWatch data to Nov 1, 2026

Bab el-MandebInstead: Around Africa by the Cape of Good Hope

■ Bab el-Mandeb ■ Cape of Good Hope · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
Bab el-MandebBinding	27.3	63.5	−57%
Cape of Good HopeOpen	92	45.5	+102%

Cape of Good Hope carries 46.5 more ships a day than normal, 128% of the 36.2 missing at Bab el-Mandeb.

SuezInstead: Around Africa by the Cape of Good Hope

■ Suez ■ Cape of Good Hope · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
SuezWatch	43	64.2	−33%
Cape of Good HopeOpen	92	45.5	+102%

Cape of Good Hope carries 46.5 more ships a day than normal, 219% of the 21.2 missing at Suez.

Suez and Bab el-Mandeb are the two ends of one route, so the Cape’s surplus answers for both.

PanamaInstead: Around South America by the Strait of Magellan

■ Panama ■ Strait of Magellan · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
PanamaOpen	27.3	32.9	−17%
Strait of MagellanOpen	4	4.2	−5%

Strait of Magellan carries no more ships than normal: the 5.6 missing a day at Panama are not showing up there.

Cargo moved across the United States by rail (the land bridge) is not a ship transit and is not counted.

MalaccaInstead: Through Indonesia by the Sunda or Lombok straits

■ Malacca ■ Sunda Strait + Lombok Strait · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
MalaccaOpen	202.7	181	+12%
Sunda StraitOpen	29.7	27.6	+8%
Lombok StraitOpen	33.3	34.3	−3%

Malacca is at or above its normal traffic, so there is no shortfall to make up.

Taiwan StraitInstead: East of Taiwan through the Luzon Strait

■ Taiwan Strait ■ Luzon Strait · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
Taiwan StraitOpen	247	239.5	+3%
Luzon StraitOpen	112.9	66.9	+69%

Taiwan Strait is at or above its normal traffic, so there is no shortfall to make up.

HormuzInstead: No sea route

■ Hormuz · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
HormuzBinding	4.4	85.1	−95%

Some crude can leave the Gulf by pipeline, Saudi Arabia’s East-West line to Yanbu on the Red Sea and the UAE’s line to Fujairah, which ship counts at Hormuz do not show. EIA on the pipelines →

BosphorusInstead: No sea route

■ Bosphorus · ships a day, monthly average; dashed = same month, 2019–2023

This week	Ships a day	Normal	Change
BosphorusBinding	44.4	101.1	−56%

The Black Sea has no other way out to the ocean.

Week Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026; normal is the same seven calendar days averaged over 2019–2023. PortWatch counts ships from their AIS transponders, not their routes, so a surplus that matches a shortfall is a match of totals, not a tracked diversion. IMF PortWatch →