Rates
The U.S. Treasury market from the Treasury’s own daily prints: the curve and how it moved, the spreads that describe its shape, what inflation-linked bonds pay, the bills cash sits in, and the auctions that price new debt.
The curve today
U.S. Treasury · Nov 6, 20263-month
4.19%
+2 bp on the day
Par yield · Nov 6
2-year
4.51%
+5 bp on the day
Par yield · Nov 6
10-year
4.86%
+2 bp on the day
Par yield · Nov 6
30-year
5.26%
+1 bp on the day
Par yield · Nov 6
2s10s spread
35bp
−3 bp in a week
10-year less 2-year · Nov 6
10-year breakeven
2.23%
−13 bp in a month
Nominal less TIPS · Nov 6
On Nov 6, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield rose 2 bp to 4.86%, and the 2-year rose 5 bp to 4.51%. The spread from 2 years to 10 years is 35 bp, at or above 16% of days in the past year. A 10-year TIPS yields 2.63% over inflation; against the nominal 10-year, that prices inflation at 2.23% a year.
The Treasury curve
Par yields by maturity, as the Treasury publishes them each business day- Latest · Nov 6, 2026
- A month earlier · Oct 6, 2026
- A year earlier · Nov 6, 2025
| Maturity | Yield % | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 4.02 | −1 | −4 | −4 | 0 |
| 2 months | 4.15 | 0 | −1 | +2 | +17 |
| 3 months | 4.19 | +2 | +3 | −2 | +26 |
| 4 months | 4.19 | +3 | +1 | −7 | +35 |
| 6 months | 4.23 | +4 | −2 | −5 | +47 |
| 1 year | 4.33 | +5 | −3 | −13 | +68 |
| 2 years | 4.51 | +5 | −5 | −28 | +94 |
| 3 years | 4.59 | +6 | −6 | −29 | +101 |
| 5 years | 4.64 | +5 | −7 | −39 | +95 |
| 7 years | 4.74 | +4 | −6 | −41 | +87 |
| 10 years | 4.86 | +2 | −8 | −41 | +75 |
| 20 years | 5.29 | +2 | −5 | −39 | +62 |
| 30 years | 5.26 | +1 | −5 | −38 | +57 |
Changes in basis points (0.01 percentage point), against the last print on or before each date.
U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates · data for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:51 AM ET
Curve spreads
Longer yield less shorter, basis points, with where each sits in its past year| Spread | Now | 1 week | 1 month | 1 year | Year low–high | Place in the year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months to 10 years3m10y | 67 | −11 | −39 | +49 | 8 to 109 | |
| 2 years to 10 years2s10s | 35 | −3 | −13 | −19 | 20 to 74 | |
| 5 years to 30 years5s30s | 62 | +2 | +1 | −38 | 41 to 114 | |
| 10 years to 30 years10s30s | 40 | +3 | +3 | −18 | 29 to 68 |
A negative spread is an inverted curve: the longer bond yields less than the shorter one. The mark shows where today sits between the year’s low and high.
- 2 years to 10 years, bp
- 3 months to 10 years, bp
U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par yield curve rates · data for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:51 AM ET
Real yields and breakevens
TIPS pay a yield over inflation; the gap to the nominal bond is the inflation it prices| Maturity | Real % | Nominal % | Breakeven % | Real, 1 month | Breakeven, 1 month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 2.35 | 4.64 | 2.29 | −31 | −8 |
| 7 years | 2.48 | 4.74 | 2.26 | −29 | −12 |
| 10 years | 2.63 | 4.86 | 2.23 | −28 | −13 |
| 20 years | 2.91 | 5.29 | 2.38 | −28 | −11 |
| 30 years | 3.07 | 5.26 | 2.19 | −28 | −10 |
Changes in basis points. A breakeven is nominal less real on the same day and maturity; it includes a risk premium, so it is not a forecast of inflation.
- 10-year breakeven, %
U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury par real yield curve rates (TIPS) · data for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:41 AM ET
Bills
Where short-term cash earns, by maturity| Bill | Matures | Discount % | Yield % | 1 week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-week | Dec 8 | 3.88 | 3.95 | −3 |
| 6-week | Dec 17 | 3.90 | 3.97 | −1 |
| 8-week | Jan 5 | 3.98 | 4.06 | −2 |
| 13-week | Feb 4 | 4.01 | 4.11 | +3 |
| 17-week | Mar 9 | 4.08 | 4.19 | +1 |
| 26-week | May 6 | 4.12 | 4.26 | +1 |
| 52-week | Oct 28 | 4.13 | 4.32 | −4 |
Closing rates on the most recently auctioned bill of each maturity. Yield is the coupon-equivalent, comparable with notes and commercial paper.
U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury bill rates · data for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:41 AM ET
The Fed’s range
The rate the front of the curve is anchored toThe federal funds target range is 3.75–4.00%, in effect since Sep 17, 2026. Banks earn 3.90% on reserves held at the Fed. The next decision is due Wed Dec 9, 2026, with new projections.
| Took effect | From % | To % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2026 | 3.50–3.75 | 3.75–4.00 | +25 bp |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3.75–4.00 | 3.50–3.75 | −25 bp |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 4.00–4.25 | 3.75–4.00 | −25 bp |
| Sep 18, 2025 | 4.25–4.50 | 4.00–4.25 | −25 bp |
| Dec 19, 2024 | 4.50–4.75 | 4.25–4.50 | −25 bp |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 4.75–5.00 | 4.50–4.75 | −25 bp |
Federal Reserve Board, FOMC meeting calendar · read Nov 9, 5:46 AM ET
Where overnight money is trading inside this range: Cash & funding.
FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal funds target range, upper and lower limits (DFEDTARU, DFEDTARL) · range as of Nov 9, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:40 AM ET
Treasury auctions
New supply: what is coming, and how the last sales wentComing up
| Auction | Security | Size | Settles |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 9 | 13-week bill | $95.0bn | Nov 12 |
| Mon Nov 9 | 26-week bill | $82.0bn | Nov 12 |
| Mon Nov 9 | 3-year note | $58.0bn | Nov 16 |
| Mon Nov 9 | 6-week bill | $100.0bn | Nov 12 |
| Tue Nov 10 | 10-year note | $42.0bn | Nov 16 |
| Thu Nov 12 | 17-week bill | Not yet announced | Nov 17 |
| Thu Nov 12 | 30-year bond | $25.0bn | Nov 16 |
| Thu Nov 12 | 4-week bill | Not yet announced | Nov 17 |
| Thu Nov 12 | 8-week bill | Not yet announced | Nov 17 |
| Mon Nov 16 | 13-week bill | Not yet announced | Nov 19 |
Results, notes and bonds first
| Date | Security | Stop % | Cover | Indirect | Dealers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | 7-year note | 4.894 | 2.46× | 57.8% | 9.4% |
| Oct 28 | 2-year FRN | — | 3.05× | 71.4% | 28.0% |
| Oct 27 | 5-year note | 4.845 | 2.33× | 60.0% | 10.6% |
| Oct 26 | 2-year note | 4.708 | 2.59× | 45.7% | 13.0% |
| Oct 22 | 5-year TIPS | 2.367 | 2.41× | 62.0% | 5.5% |
| Oct 21 | 20-year bond (reopening) | 5.469 | 2.73× | 58.2% | 10.3% |
| Nov 5 | 4-week bill | 3.956 | 2.46× | 47.8% | 48.4% |
| Nov 5 | 8-week bill | 4.055 | 2.68× | 65.3% | 31.3% |
| Nov 4 | 17-week bill | 4.204 | 3.26× | 49.4% | 42.5% |
| Nov 3 | 6-week bill | 4.013 | 2.88× | 61.0% | 33.4% |
Stop is the highest yield accepted (for bills, the investment rate). Cover is dollars bid per dollar sold. Indirect bidders are mostly foreign official accounts and funds bidding through dealers; dealers take what others do not. A floating-rate note has no stop yield.
TreasuryDirect, Auction announcements and results · latest result Nov 5, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:20 AM ET
Open Calls
Dated forecasts on this subject, scored in public when they resolve- 72%Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 6 November 2026?Open Call · resolves Nov 6, 2026 · Call Card
- 62%Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on November 8, 2026?Open Call · resolves Nov 8, 2026 · Call Card
- 62%Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-11-10?Open Call · resolves Nov 10, 2026 · Call Card
- 62%Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2026-11-11?Open Call · resolves Nov 11, 2026 · Call Card
Every Call and how it resolved: Track record.
ARCANE reporting
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Who Pays
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rates · Nov 6, 2026
The Numbers Disagree
Treasury yields fall as traders await jobless claimsBond buyers and borrowers face uncertainty over jobless claims and the fiscal outlook after the election.
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The Numbers Disagree
Tech stocks fall as Wall Street questions AI returnsCompanies tied to AI data centers face the pressure as high rates threaten the build-out and profit misses draw harsher punishment.
equities · Oct 31, 2026
Sources
Every number above, where it comes from and when it was read- U.S. TreasuryDaily Treasury par yield curve ratesData for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:51 AM ET
- U.S. TreasuryDaily Treasury par real yield curve rates (TIPS)Data for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:41 AM ET
- U.S. TreasuryDaily Treasury bill ratesData for Nov 6, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:41 AM ET
- TreasuryDirectAuction announcements and resultsData for Nov 5, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:20 AM ET
- FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisFederal funds target range, upper and lower limits (DFEDTARU, DFEDTARL)Data for Nov 9, 2026 · read Nov 9, 10:40 AM ET
- Federal Reserve BoardFOMC meeting calendarData for Nov 9, 2026 · read Nov 9, 5:46 AM ET