Forecast scoreboard
How good are Alpha’s calls?
Overall
Not enough resolved calls yet: 2 of the 10 needed before a score means anything. 78 calls are waiting to resolve.
We count 6 more resolved calls as largely settled or near-certain when sealed. They are scored as sealed on the track record and earn no skill credit here.
Lower is better for both scores. A Brier score of 0.250 is what always saying 50% earns; 0 is perfect.
Against others
| Compared with | Questions | Alpha | Them | Difference (95% interval) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction markets (exact matches) | 0 | Not enough resolved calls yet |
Markets count only where a market asks the same question with the same threshold and closes within three days of the call’s date. The AI models see only the question, with none of ARCANE’s research. “More accurate” is claimed only when a test registered on 2026-09-26, before any call resolved, says so: at least 30 shared questions and a 95% interval that does not include zero. Method · registration sha256:a9dd5b1c454d9b5d
ForecastBench, the independent public benchmark: no scored submission yet.
By horizon
| Group | Resolved | Brier (95% interval) | Log score |
|---|---|---|---|
| About a month | 2 | Not enough resolved calls yet | |
By subject
| Group | Resolved | Brier (95% interval) | Log score |
|---|---|---|---|
| geopolitics conflict | 1 | Not enough resolved calls yet | |
By depth
| Group | Resolved | Brier (95% interval) | Log score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★ Analysis | 1 | Not enough resolved calls yet | |
Calibration
Not enough resolved calls yet: calibration is drawn from 20.
Waiting to resolve
- 72%Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 6 November 2026? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on November 8, 2026? · A week, by · Call Card
- 30%Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2026-11-10? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-11-10? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-11-10? · A week, by · Call Card
- 20%Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2026-11-10? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 11 November 2026? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2026-11-11? · A week, by · Call Card
- 32%Will the Nasdaq Composite record a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through 2026-11-12? · A week, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on November 12, 2026? · A week, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2026-11-12? · A week, by · Call Card
- 18%Will the Knesset’s official record show Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote by 2026-11-13? · A week, by · Call Card
- 25%Will the S&P 500 fall at least 4.4% in a single trading session by 13 November 2026? · A week, by · Call Card
- 93%Will EMSTEEL publish its third-quarter 2026 financial results on or before 14 November 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 68%Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 28 November 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 15%Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 28 November 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 60%Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 29 November 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 64%Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for November 2026 be at least 49.3 PMI points? · A month, by · Call Card
- 34%Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2026-11-30? · A month, by · Call Card
- 67%Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 4 December 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 70%Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2026-12-04? · A month, by · Call Card
- 70%Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on December 5, 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 18%Will the Nasdaq 100 fall at least 6.36% in a single trading session by 6 December 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 30%Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2026-12-10? · A month, by · Call Card
- 67%Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2026-12-10? · A month, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on December 10, 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 30%Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in October 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 80%Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 22.8 per cent for the third quarter of 2026? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2026-12-15? · A month, by · Call Card
- 68%Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2026-12-15? · A month, by · Call Card
- 45%Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 26.1 per cent for the third quarter of 2026? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 20 December 2026? · A month, by · Call Card
- 34%Will the Knesset’s official record show Gadi Eisenkot receiving at least 67 votes in a confidence vote by 2026-12-21? · A month, by · Call Card
- 58%Will Kenya’s Court of Appeal grant a stay of the High Court order restoring the transferred Safaricom PLC stake to the Government of Kenya by 2026-12-31? · Three months, by
- 68%Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for December 2026 be at least 49.3 PMI points? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the ECB’s published deposit facility rate be at most 2.5% on 28 January 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 55%Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 28 January 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 66%Will Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) report China's full-year 2026 rare earth permanent magnet exports at 60,000 metric tons or more? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 68%Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on January 29, 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 29 January 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 36%Will Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) report China's full-year 2026 rare earth permanent magnet exports at 61,600 metric tons or more, matching its own forecast? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 37%Will Israel’s newly sworn-in government command at least 61 Knesset seats by 2027-01-30? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 40%Will ServiceNow’s closing share price fall at least 27% from the previous trading day’s close in any session by 2027-02-01? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 74%Will Meta’s final euro bond pricing show a spread at least 0.9 point wider than its comparable April note by 2027-02-03? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 72%Will the front-month WTI crude oil futures settlement be at least $96.50 a barrel on 3 February 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 72%Will the ECB euro reference rate for the Swiss franc reach at least 0.9167 CHF per EUR on any published date by 2027-02-04? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the Nasdaq Composite record a daily percentage gain of at least 1.44% on any trading day from today through 2027-02-04? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 75%Will the December 2026 COMEX gold futures settlement be at least $4,016 per troy ounce on February 4, 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 20%Will the VIX surge at least 70% in a single trading session by 5 February 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 62%Will the Federal Reserve raise its target interest rate at its December 2026 policy meeting, as confirmed by 6 February 2027? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 74%Will the published daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield reach at least +3 bp on any business day by 2027-02-15? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 62%Will China’s official manufacturing PMI for January 2027 be at least 49.3 PMI points? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 32%Will Destatis report that German manufacturing new orders rose by at least 4.8% month over month in December 2026? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 68%Will the Multilateral Sanctions Monitoring Team's public member list show at least 11 countries by 2027-02-28? · Three months, by · Call Card
- 68%Will the US Department of Agriculture's first farm income forecast for 2027 show fertilizer, lime and soil conditioner expenses lower in 2027 than in 2026? · Six months, by · Call Card
- 53%Will EMSTEEL's cement division report an EBITDA margin of at least 26.1 per cent for the full year 2026? · Six months, by · Call Card
- 6%Will China's Ministry of Commerce publish an announcement lifting or suspending its January 2026 ban on exports of dual-use items to Japan by 1 April 2027? · Six months, by · Call Card
- 65%Will the ECB raise its key interest rates by 25 bp at a meeting before 29 April 2027? · Six months, by · Call Card
- 70%Will the US Dollar Index close at or below 102.037 on 30 April 2027? · Six months, by · Call Card
- 70%Will the U.S. Treasury’s published 10-year Treasury yield be at least 4.990% on April 30, 2027? · Six months, by · Call Card
Every call, open and resolved, is also on the track record.